Three reasons why ‘Barney’ can win St James’s

The form book is clear-cut in its reporting of the first Classic. Barney Roy finished second to Churchill in the G1 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket. One length separated the pair at the winning post.

Churchill then extended his record to seven wins from eight starts by cruising home in the G1 Irish 2,000 Guineas at the Curragh.

Already I hear you asking: how on earth can Barney Roy reverse the Newmarket form when they line up against each other again in Tuesday's G1 St James's Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot?

Well, I can give you three reasons. And they are good reasons, based on what we have seen on the racecourse and at home. Here they are:

1. Barney Roy was unlucky in the 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket. He stumbled badly and became unbalanced entering the dip, over one furlong out.

James Doyle reported to the stewards that the colt actually lost his action for a stride. At such a crucial point in the race, this was costly, and without that stumble, who can confidently say things would have been so straightforward for Churchill?

2. Ascot is a flatter track, which, I believe, Barney Roy will love.

Even with its undulations, Ascot's Old Mile start, which is in operation for the St James's Palace, provides a more even surface overall than Newmarket. There is certainly nothing like the dip to negotiate - it is an uphill climb all the way.

3. Barney Roy is going to be much fresher than Churchill on the big day. The Godolphin colt will not have raced since May 6, whereas Churchill went on to the Curragh on May 27.

On this point, you can never really tell until they clash exactly who is favoured. Some, of course, thrive on the regular racing.

But, can anybody really guarantee Churchill is going to have as easy a run in the St James's Palace as he received up the stands rail at Newmarket when there was a serious lack of pace?

Summing up, I am very happy with Barney Roy and the way he has progressed since the Guineas. He has been away for a racecourse gallop at Kempton, and I am confident he is ready to do himself justice in the St James's Palace.