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Justifiably the favorite

It won’t be a big surprise if Justify were to win on Saturday. He’s healthy. He’s proven. He seems ready.

Since 1978, when Affirmed courageously held off Alydar in the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes in America, only American Pharoah in 2015 has been able to duplicate the incredibly difficult feat of winning the historic Triple Crown. Thirteen others, over that same time period, were able to capture the first two legs of the series, and this year’s Kentucky Derby winner Justify is a heavy favourite to become number 14 on Saturday.

Justify has already bucked Derby history by becoming the first horse since Apollo in 1882 to win the Kentucky Derby without having made a start as a two-year-old. He joins an exclusive group of nine sophomores to have won the Kentucky Derby undefeated.

Nyquist, now a Darley stallion who stands at Godolphin’s Jonabell Farm in Lexington, Kentucky, was the last to do it in 2016. Big Brown did his bit in 2008 (also wining the Preakness) while Barbaro continued his unblemished record when winning the Derby in 2006. Smarty Jones, sired by late Darley stallion Elusive Quality, grabbed the hearts of a nation when winning in 2004 (he, too, won the Preakness).

It is another 27 years back to Seattle Slew who ran to the money in 1977, and eventually became the only horse to ever win the Triple Crown with an undefeated record. Majestic Prince in 1969 was able to do it while Morvich, interestingly, won the Derby undefeated in 1922 but never ran in the Preakness as it was run on the same day that year, while Regret, the first filly to win the Derby, was a perfect three for three when she won the first leg in 1915.

So. Can Justify do it? Most think he has a pretty good chance. He certainly looks the best on paper but it is likely that he will have to take on seven others, including three who chased him home in the Derby.

The best of these is Good Magic, last year’s Eclipse Champion two-year-old in North America, who ran second to Justify two weekends ago. He’s a talented horse and had no excuses in the Derby. His trip was pretty much without incident and was simply second best that day.

The two other Derby also-rans are G2 Risen Star Sakes winner Bravazo and G2 Louisiana Derby runner-up Lone Sailor, who finished sixth and eighth respectively in the Derby. Each had their own share of traffic in this year’s Run for the Roses but no one was going to beat Justify that day.

Interestingly, Bravazo’s trainer, Hall of Famer D. Wayne Lukas, holds the record for the most Triple Crown races won with 14. He has won four Kentucky Derbies and also has six Preakness victories to his name, more than any other trainer in the modern era. Only R. Wyndham Walden, who trained in the late 1800s, has more with seven. Bravazo won’t be Lukas’s best chance at winning the second leg of the Triple Crown but you can never count out “The Coach.”

Lukas also has Sporting Chance entered, winner of the G1 Hopeful Stakes last year as a two-year-old. He’s winless in 2018 and comes into the Preakness off a fourth-place finish in the G3 Pat Day Mile which was run on Derby Day at Churchill Downs.

Two other contenders last ran in the G1 Arkansas Derby, Quip and Tenfold, who ran second and fifth respectively. An intriguing twist to this year’s Preakness story is that Quip’s trainer, Rodolphe Brisset, provided Justify with his early training and conditioning before the Kentucky Derby winner was shipped to the barn of Bob Baffert. WinStar Farm and China Horse Club are part of the ownership group of both Justify and Quip.

Rounding out the field is a local contender of sorts, three-year-old colt Diamond King. Although he’s yet to race at Pimlico, he shows two victories at nearby Laurel Race Course, also in Maryland, and Parx Ractrack, just over the border in Pennsylvania. He enters off a win in the Listed Federico Tesio Stakes but would be considered an outsider by most. The only horse to win both the “Tesio” and the Preakness was Deputed Testamony in 1983.

It won’t be a big surprise if Justify were to win on Saturday. He’s healthy. He’s proven. He seems ready.

Trainer Bob Baffert who knows him best, said, "The next day (after the Derby), he was so bright and so full of energy that I was pretty impressed myself. Usually all my Derby winners—it takes them about five days to fully snap out of it. But he was pretty sharp the whole time. You could tell today he wanted to go faster than the rider wanted. To me that tells me he’s still on go."